Time Series Analysis On Measles Cases In Nigeria

This research work describes a study that used measles disease data collected through Knoema health surveillance system to evaluate univariate time series method namely; autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The data obtained from 1980 to 2016 were used as modeling data and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). A low normalized BIC of21.817 was recorded. The accuracy of the statistical model in forecasting future measles disease proved …